Cidano Padziko Lonse 2023

Dziko liyenera kupewa kudodometsedwa

Ino ndi nthawi yovuta kwambiri pankhani yachuma padziko lonse lapansi yomwe ikuyembekezeka kudandaula mu 2023.

Mphamvu zitatu zamphamvu zikugwiranso zachuma padziko lonse lapansi: mikangano pakati pa Russia ndi Ukraine, kufunika kokhala ndi vuto la ndalama zomwe zili ndi ndalama zokulirapo, komanso kuchepa kwa chuma cha China.

Pa misonkhano ya ndalama zapadziko lonse lapansi mu Okutobala, tinayamba kukula padziko lonse lapansi kuyambira 6.0 peresenti chaka chatha mpaka 3.2 peresenti chaka chino. Ndipo, kwa 2023, tidatsitsa kuneneratu kwathu kwa 2.7 peresenti - 0,2 pereseji yotsika kuposa momwe mwezi umodzi umapangidwira mu Julayi.

Tikuyembekezera pang'onopang'ono padziko lonse lapansi kuti zikhazikike, ndi mayiko omwe amawerengera gawo limodzi mwa magawo atatu a chuma chachuma cha padziko lonse kapena chotsatira. Chuma Chapamwamba Kwambiri Kwambiri: United States, China, ndi dera la euro, lipitirirabe.

Pali umodzi mwa mwayi wawu kanayi kuti Kukula kwadziko lonse lapansi chaka chamawa kumatha kugwera pansi 2 peresenti - otsika kwambiri. Mwachidule, choyipitsitsa sichinabwere ndipo, enanso akuluakulu achuma, monga Germany, akuyenera kuti ayambenso kulowa chaka chamawa.

Tiyeni tiwone chuma chachikulu kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi:

Ku United States, mikhalidwe yolimba ndi ndalama zachuma zimatanthawuza kukula kwa 1 peresenti mu 2023.

Ku China, tatsika kukula kwa chaka chamawa ku 4.4 peresenti chifukwa chofooka kwa katundu, ndipo zofooka za padziko lapansi.

Ku Eurozone, zovuta mphamvu zomwe zimayambitsidwa ndi nkhondo za ku Russia-Ukraine zikuwononga kwambiri, kuchepetsa kukula kwathu kwa 2023 mpaka 0,5 peresenti.

Pafupifupi kulikonse, kukwera mitengo mwachangu, makamaka chakudya ndi mphamvu, zikuyambitsa zovuta zambiri kwa mabanja omwe ali pachiwopsezo.

Ngakhale panali kuchepa, kukakamizidwa kwamtundu kumatsimikizira kukula komanso kupitiliza kuposa momwe akuyembekezera. Kuchulukira kwapadziko lonse lapansi kukuyembekezeka kufika pa 9.5 peresenti mu 2022 musanapange 4.1 peresenti pofika 2024. Kuchulukanso kumakulanso kuposa chakudya ndi mphamvu.

Maganizo ake angalimbikire kuti malonda ena azichita bwino komanso omwe amakumana nawo amakhala ovuta. Nayi zoopsa zinayi:

Chiwopsezo cha ndalama, ndalama zachuma, kapena zachuma zimakhetsa kwambiri panthawi yosatsimikizika kwambiri.

Chiwopsezo m'misika yandalama chingayambitse zovuta zapadziko lonse lapansi kuti ziwonongeke, ndipo US dollar yolimbitsa patsogolo.

Kuchulukanso kungatheke, kutsimikiziranso, kumatsimikiziranso kuti, makamaka ngati misika yantchito ikhale yolimba kwambiri.

Pomaliza, mabwanawo ku Ukraine akadali kukwiya. Kuwonjezereka kwina kungakulitse mphamvu ndi mavuto azachipatala.

Kuchulukitsa kwamitengo kwamitengo kumakhalabe chiwopsezo chochuluka kwambiri kwa omwe ali ndi vuto laposachedwa komanso wamtsogolo pofinya zinthu zenizeni ndikuchepetsa kukhazikika kwa macroeconomimi. Mabanki a Central tsopano amayang'ana pakubwezeretsanso mtengo, ndipo kuthamanga kwa magetsi kumachuluka kwambiri.

Ngati kuli kofunikira, ndalama zachuma ziyenera kuwonetsetsa kuti misika imakhalabe yokhazikika. Komabe, mabanki apakati padziko lonse lapansi amafunika kusunga dzanja lokhazikika, ndipo mfundo za ndalamazo zimayang'ana kwambiri pakutsitsa kwakukulu.

Mphamvu ya dollar yaku US ilinso yovuta kwambiri. Dollar tsopano ali ndi mphamvu kuyambira pamenepa. Pakadali pano, izi zikuwoneka bwino kwambiri ndi mphamvu zazikulu monga momwe ndalama zakugwirira ntchito ku US ndi vuto la mphamvu.

Kuyankha koyenera ndikugwiritsa ntchito mfundo zopangira ndalama kuti musungunuke kwa mitengo, pomwe akulola kuwonongeka kwa mitengo kumasinthiratu, kumasungira ndalama zosinthana zakunja pakakhala ndalama zikayamba bwanji.

Monga chuma padziko lonse lapansi chikulowera madzi amkuntho, ino ndi nthawi yoti apange malamulo opanga msika pamsika kuti agwetse zipewa.

Mphamvu yolamulira ku Europe

Maganizo a chaka chamawa akuwoneka okongola. Tikuwona gdp contrants 0,1 peresenti mu 2023, yomwe ili pansipa.

Komabe, kugwa bwino pofunafuna nyengo - njira yotentha - ndi kuchuluka kwa nyengo yosungirako mpweya pafupi ndi 100 peresenti yomwe imachepetsa chiopsezo chotenga mphamvu nthawi yachisanu.

Pofika chaka cha zaka zambiri, zinthu zikayenera kugwa ngati kukwera kwa kugwa kumalola kuti zipezeke pazinthu zenizeni komanso kuchira mu mafakitale a mafakitale. Koma pafupifupi palibe mpweya wamapaipi waku Russia womwe ukuyenda ku Europe chaka chamawa, kontinentiyo idzafunika m'malo onse otayika.

Chifukwa chake nkhani ya 2022 ya Macro idzaphulika mwamphamvu ndi mphamvu. Chowoneka bwino kwa Nuclearric Kutulutsa kwa Nuclearric kophatikizidwa ndi kuchuluka kwa mphamvu ndi mafuta kutali ndi mpweya kumatha kuyatsa mpweya waku Russia popanda vuto lakuya lazachuma.

Tikuyembekezera kukwera mu 2023, ngakhale nthawi yayitali yamtengo wapatali chaka chino imabweretsa chiopsezo chachikulu cha kukwera kwakukulu.

Ndipo pafupi ndi kumapeto kwa mpweya wa ku Russia, kuyesetsa kwa ku Europe pokonzanso mitengo yamagesi komwe kumatha kukankhira mitengo yamagesi mmwamba mu 2023.

Chithunzithunzi chakukhomera mitengo yamtengo wapatali kumayang'ana chocheperako kuposa mawonekedwe a mutu, ndipo timayembekezera kuti chikhale chokwezekanso mu 2023, chinacha 3.7 peresenti. Chidziwitso champhamvu chopindika chimachokera ku katundu ndipo mphamvu zomata kwambiri pamitengo yautumiki chizipanga chikhalidwe cha kukwera kwa pakatikati.

Mphamvu zambiri zopanda mafuta ndizokwera tsopano, chifukwa chosintha pofunafuna, nkhani zopitilira muyeso ndi kudutsa-mphamvu.

Koma kutsika pamitengo yamitengo yapadziko lonse lapansi, kumapangitsa kuti ma mitambo azikhala, ndi milingo yayitali ya nonse padongosolo - maofesi azomwe amapereka kuti atembenukire.

Ndi ntchito zoimira magawo awiri mwa atatuwo, ndi opitilira 40 peresenti ya inflation yonse, ndi pomwe malo enieni enieni azikhala 2023.